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Impact Based Projection Of Population Change On Development Efforts In Ethiopia: Opportunities And Challenges


The paper addresses the demographic transition potential in Ethiopia and the possibility of capturing the demographic dividend observed in some East Asian Countries, as well as, suggests mechanisms to facilitate this possible opportunity. It is based on the "Spectrum" Projection Model covering the period from 1994 to 2050. The age structure of the Ethiopian population has remained child and youth dominated for along time now, but with recent incipient fertility decline expected to be expediting, Ethiopia's demographic profile will see considerable shift in the next four decades.
Education and employment indicators witness that despite striking improvements in primary education and modest decline in unemployment rate over the past few years; there is still huge unemployment rate and low secondary school enrollment, as well as, wide gender disparity in both secondary education and formal employment. Projections under three different fertility scenarios reveal that fertility plays multiple roles in boosting Ethiopia to reap the demographic dividend through (1) reducing population size (2) changing the age structure and (3) raising the status of women. Thus it will determine Ethiopia's future development course including its prospects of joining Middle Income Countries, urging the Government of Ethiopia to reconsider aggressive population control in its development plans.
Nonetheless, the demographic dividend is not automatic, nor does the window of opportunity lasts forever. Hence it can be reaped if policies and programs in countries at the incipient stages of the demographic transition are focused on the needs, aspirations and expectations for a growing bulge of young people. These preconditions, among others, include training and job creation for youth, quality and efficient educational system, agricultural modernization and intensification, labor intensive production technology, healthier lifestyles, and institutional developments. Under business as usual scenario, however, the future is bleak and the youth would turn out to be given up burdens rather than grown up dividend

Corporate Author: 
Getnet Alemu & Worku Gebeyehu (Editor) & Ethiopian Economic Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute
Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)
Primary Descriptors: 

Incipient Fertility, Demographic Dividend

Secondary Descriptor: 

Demographic Transition, Projection, Enrollment rate

Cataloge Date: 
Broad Subject heading: 
Urban Unemployment
Call Number: 
330.963 PRO 2011
Serial Key Title: 
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy
Publication catagory: 
Content type: 
Publication date: 
2013-06-27 23:11:00
Forum or Discussion date: 
2013-02-27 15:43:10
Place of publication: 
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Type of material: 
Current frequency: