FOREST RESOURCE ACCOUNTING FOR IMPROVED NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS OF ETHIOPIA

By: Abinet Gebrekidan

Adama University

 

1. Introduction

According to the World Development Indicators 2003, with gross national income per capita of USD 100 in year 2001, Ethiopia was ranked 206th exceeding Democratic Republic of Congo (with gross national income per capita of USD of 80) (World Bank, 2003). This is a very low figure even compared with other developing countries. Using the conventional measure of poverty (1 USD a day), about 44 percent of Ethiopia’s population falls under the poverty line, which is close to the African average but very low by LDCs standards. According to World Bank Development Indicators (2004), if one uses the 2 USD a day measure, the percent of population that falls under the poverty line exceeds 80 percent. By any standard, the country is one of the poorest nations in the world.

 

Although it is intense in urban areas, the fact that 85 percent of the population is residing in rural areas makes poverty mainly a rural phenomenon. The agricultural sector, which is denominated by small holding peasant farmers practicing traditional farming system, is the key sector to the economy. It generates more than 90 percent of the total export earning and employs about 85 percent of the population. The fact that majority of the population earns its livelihood from this sector, and that it is highly dependent on nature, makes sustainable agriculture and natural resources management at the heart of overall poverty reduction program. More importantly, the very poor, landless laborers, small farmers and female-headed households in both rural and urban areas are highly dependent on natural resources for income generation. Women fuel wool carries in Addis Ababa and charcoal traders in rural Ethiopia are good examples. This is consistent with the general statement that the very poor are highly dependent on nature and natural resources for their survival.

 

Rapid population growth (of 3 percent annual average) together with widespread poverty in the country has led to unsustainable uses of natural resources. Forest resources are one of the resources depleted quickly over the last three or four decades. Lack of awareness on the consequences of misuse of natural resources, traditional farming practice together with poverty driven human activates have contributed to the rapid loss of natural forests over this short period.  As a result, the country has experienced problems such as severe changes in microclimatic conditions, recurrent drought, grave soil erosion, desertification, and loss of biodiversity. The irreversible loss of fertile topsoil and biodiversity and change in climatic conditions has an implication for poverty reduction and sustainable development effort of the nation.

Certainly, the causal relationship between poverty and environment is not quite clear, as whether poverty causes environmental degradation or environmental degradation causes poverty. However, most of the environmental degradations in developing countries are due to poverty driven human activities. In Ethiopia, also abject poverty induced the poor to become both agents and victims of environmental degradations (Sisay A, and Adguna L, 2001). To survive in this subsistence economy, the poor uses natural resources in unsustainable manner, which could even affect their future life adversely, creating a vicious cycle of poverty and environmental degradation.  That is why in the Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program (or PRSP) of the country, conserving the environment (natural resources) was seen as part and parcel of the overall Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) policy which is designed for poverty alleviation and sustainable development (MOFED, 2002)

 

Although deforestation is common in tropical areas, Ethiopia has lost its forest resources over short period. This can be verified by percent of forest cover of the country, which has showed big change over the last few decades. The country’s forest cover, which was more than 16 percent of the total area in 1950s, is now less than 3 percent (FAO, 1995). Causes of rapid deforestation may vary from country to country and from time to time. Hassan R. and Hertzler, G. (2000), and Benhin J.K.A and Barber E.B., (2001) argued that in many development countries; expansion of agricultural lands comes through clearing of forest resources. Cultivated land in Ethiopia over the last five or five decades has increased.

 

Failure to incorporate the external social costs of deforestation has contributed a critical role for quick loss of forest resource in the country. At national level, the System of National Accounts (SNA) is the standard way of collecting and compiling data on economic activates both as flow and as stock variables. The compilation of national income accounts follow internationally agreed concepts, definitions, classifications and accounting (UN, 1993).  Since SNA is full of information about the economic condition of nation, it is indispensable for the monitoring, analysis and evaluation of the performance of the economy overtime.  It has also been used to analyses productive capacity of a nation and comparison among nations (UN, 1993, Disrupt, P, Kristrom, B. and K.G. Maler, 1995). Gross Domestic product (GDP) is the most important concept in the system, while the other accounts are just derivatives of the GDP. Although the intention of SNA is to measure the performance of economic activity, GDP or GNP is often used as an index of welfare in a country and that is well established in the minds of economists, journalists, politicians (Disrupt, P., Kristrom, B. and K.G. Maler, 1995).

 

 

 

2. Objectives of the Study

 

Given the above general background on shortcomings of conventional national income accounts as a measure of welfare, and its implications on natural resources management (NRM), NRA is though to be one way to make operational the notion of sustainable development and a step to better conserve natural resources. Hence, this paper tries to develop better current and future welfare indicators by incorporating the missing non-marketed benefits of forest resources and constructing natural capital inclusive asset account in Ethiopia.

 

In particular the research project aims at valuing forest resources for improved national income accounts of the country. The specific objectives of the research are:

a)                  To develop a theoretical framework to account for true contributions of forest resources,

b)                 Create separate forest accounts that incorporate the values of forest services and non-timber forest products.

c)                  Incorporate forest accounts into the national accounts for a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the performance of the economy and the utilization of forest resources.

d)                 Demonstrate the usefulness of natural resource accounts and build capacity and awareness among the relevant stakeholders.

e)                  To discuss the implication of the changes made to national account figures on NRM and sustainable development.

 

3. Research Methods

 

Unlike conventional national income accounts, which measure the value of total marketed goods and services ignoring interactions between economic activities and the environment, NRA tries to adequately capture such interaction. Hence, NRA is adjusting the conventional national income accounts for the interaction between the economy and the environment. The amendment to national income accounts in two fronts; flow accounts like GDP and asset accounts, which measures the value of assets.

 

NRA is adjusting the conventional national income accounts for the interaction between the economy and the environment. The amendment to national income accounts in two fronts; flow accounts like GDP and asset accounts, which measures the value of assets.

 

Adjustment to the flow accounts involve estimating monetary values of non- marketed benefits that individuals generate directly from forest resources and are missing from national accounts. Contingent valuation method will be used to estimate the value of these benefits where estimates are not available from secondary sources. Correction to the capital accounts requires estimating physical and monetary value of stock of forest. Net Price Method will be used to estimate monetary value of forest stock to generate natural capital inclusive asset accounts. This will enable to generate sustainability indicators like genuine domestic saving and green NNP.

 

4. Expected Results and Dissemination

As briefly, discussed above, NRA tries to adjust conventional national accounts for true contribution natural resources, or to capture both the short and long-term impacts of environmental degradation on economic growth. Hence this study tries to show how distorted conventional SNA is, when used as a basis for welfare measurement and policy design and its implication in resource uses. By incorporating, some of the missing benefits of forest resources into conventional national accounts and stock of forest resources to total capital stock it tries to generate better current and future welfare indicator, respectively. By conducting empirical work in the area, and indicating the importance of NRA as better sustainability indicator and basis for better natural resource management, the paper will lay foundation for greening national accounts in the country.

 

In doing so, it suggests some policy recommendations which will greatly help in measuring the contributions of forest resources in the country. The results will be disseminated by various means such as conducting familiarization seminars and distributing copies for concerned government ministries and other bodies.

 

5. Hypothesis of the Study

 

Given the economic/ poverty structure, the majority of the people are living in rural areas generating many non- marketed tangible and intangible benefits from forest resources, which lie outside the production boundary of SNA. This implies inclusion of such missing values will increase the national income figures similar to the findings of studies carried out in countries like South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Therefore, the paper hypothesis that official report (based on the conventional SNA) which says forest resources contribute about 13.2 percent to agriculture and about 6.9 percent to total output over the period 1991/92 to 2003/04 is far below the true contribution of the forest resources. In addition, if we look at natural capital inclusive capital asset, the enormous loss of forest resources confirms the negative genuine domestic saving (-8.7 percent in year 1998) implying that the country is dwindling it capital asset.

 

 

 

6. Data Source and Limitation of the Study

 

Since well–organized data related to natural resources in general and forest resources in particular is limited in the country, the paper will utilize both published reports and web sites of different organization like Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), Food and agricultural Organization (FAO), the World Bank and others. Data pertaining to national accounts will be obtained from Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED) and National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE). To estimate the value of non-marketed benefits, primary data will be gathered from specific vicinity in the country.

 

As Vincent, J.R (2000) stated focusing on a single resource like forest does not generate comprehensive estimates of green net national product (NNP), hence this paper could only be one major step toward natural resource accounting in the country. In addition, due to limited time available for this project, estimate of the true values of the benefits that will be used to adjust national account figures are generalizations of estimates of specific area that will be used in the study.

 

7. Literature Review

 

Literature on failure of System of National Accounts (SNA) to adequately capture the flow and stock values, theoretical framework for natural resources (environmental) accounting and empirical country experiences in natural resource accounting will be examined thoroughly. To accomplish this task both theoretical and empirical literatures in the area will be examined including the national compilation system in Ethiopia.

 

7.1 Theoretical Literature

 

Failure to incorporate non-marketed goods and services; like the values of work people do at their home for themselves or their families, the value of leisure time, costs of environmental damage and the underground economy makes GNP less accurate as an index of national well being.

 

Generally, national income accounts fail to record fully the interaction between the economy and the environment. Among the above missing values, the one related to environmental resources are of big relevance for this study as it tries to investigate the missing values of non-marketed services obtained from forest resources and incorporating natural capital to the total capital stock. Hence, the adjustments made in environmental accounting are in two respects: one is in adjusting flow accounts and the other one is adjusting the capital (stock) account. Similar to conventional national income accounts, here green NNP, true forest resource contribution adjusted GDP/GNP genuine saving (net adjusted saving) will be generated.

 

In addition to be inadequate indicator of social well-being, standard measures of national income accounts provides wrong signals to policy makers which has contributed to faster resource depletion. Although Malthusian and Meadows et al (1972) gloomy prediction were proved wrong, the growing depletion of natural resources and environmental disaster strengthened the importance of environment in development process. As a global level, the concern for natural resources got attention following the 1978 world commission report, our common future and sustainable development. Therefore, natural resource accounting (NRA) is considered as one-way to operationalize sustainable development and means which helps better natural resources management.

 

NRA involves two steps: one is estimating monetary values of goods and services obtained from natural resources which remained missing and two integrating natural capital into capital stock accounts. Although the general framework is common, there may be differences between renewable and non-renewable resources. Even among renewable resources, the adjustment process may differ depending on the nature of the resource and ownership structure.

For non-renewable natural resources like petroleum, adjustment is only in the stock account as revenue generated from the extraction of such resources ids fully captured in current account/GDP. The issue here is then to integrate the depletion of natural capital, which yields flow of the benefits to total capital stock in the country (Kellenberg, 1996).

 

For renewable resources, however, the adjustments are complicated as there are many missing flow benefits, which are not, recorded in conventional national income accounts in addition to its stock value which is not included in total capital stock. Natural resources like forest provide many goods and services, which are directly consumed by local people. This flow of benefits includes the value of wood people directly harvest for fuel, construction and grazing services (Hassan R., 2002 and Malbugu R., 2000).

 

Among the shortcomings of conventional system of national accounting as a measure of well-being is, it does not fully capture the interaction between environment and the economy. There are several tangible and non- tangible benefits generated from natural resources that are not accounted in the national accounts. Fuel wood, construction materials, fodder, fruits, traditional medicine, watershed protection and carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, weather condition stabilization etc., are among the tangible and intangible benefits generated from natural forests and remained missing from national accounts (Ramos, M and Chitiga, M.2002 and Hassan, R.M.2002).

Hence, conventional SNA do not reflect both the short and long-term economic impacts of environmental degradation and natural resource management. Since consumption is regarded as a better indicator of current well-being than income, the inclusion of non marketed environmental values mentioned above which are part of the consumption bundle is one of the concerns of natural resource accounting (NRA).  Constructing a better future well-being indicator is also another concern for NRA. Capital asset being a stock of value that has the potential to generate a stream of income (Kellenberg, J, 1996); hence, NRA attempts to incorporate natural capital into the asset account to use it as a basis for future well-being indicator. One of the goals in the mind of researchers when constructing environmental accounts is that the accounts will help the efforts for sustainable management of natural resources ( Hecht, H.JE. 2000). Hence, the issue of integrating missing environmental values to national accounts is one way to operationalize notion of sustainable development, ( Glenn-Marie, L, Rashid, H. and K. Hamilton, 2003) .

 

7.2 Empirical Literature

 

NRA in developing countries emphasizes accounting for natural resources like water, fisheries and minerals while pollution dominates the efforts in developed world. Hechet (2000) summarized environmental accounting findings from nine case studies: Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Canada, the Philippines, Namibia, Germany and the United States. He also mentioned that Norway, the Netherlands and France were ‘’early adopters’’ while Philippines and Namibia were the two developing countries with ongoing commitment to environmental accounting. Very recently, countries in South Africa are undertaking NRA studies in collaboration with Resource Accounting Network for Eastern and Southern Africa and Center for Environmental Economics and Policy for Africa.

 

The study done by Hassan (2002) is a comprehensive empirical research done in South Africa to account for stock and flow values of woody land resources. For adjustment purposes, woody land in South Africa has been divided into natural forest, cultivated forest and fynbos. In constructing forest resource accounts, both physical and monetary forest accounts were made for natural and cultivated forest.

 

The study conducted by Mabugu (2000) to account for true contribution of forest resources in Zimbabwe, has classified forest resources into two: cultivated plantations and natural forests. Similar to the findings of Hassen (2002), consumptive, direct use-values constitute the largest missing value of forest resource contribution missed from conventional national income. Similar country experiences of Tanzania and Zimbabwe will also be discussed.

 

8. References

Disrupt, P., Kristrom, B., and K.G. Maler (1995) ‘Current Issues in Resource Accounting’ in Johansson (eds.), Current Issues in Environmental Economics, Manchester University Press

 

De Bruyn, S.M. and Heintz, R.J. (1999) ‘The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis’ Chapter 46 in Jereon, C.J.M. and Van den Berg (1999) Handbook of Environmental and Resource Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited

 

Glenn-Marie, L. Rashid, H. and K. Hamilton (2003) Environmental Accounting in Action: Case Studies from South, CEEPA, University of Pretoria

 

Hassen R. and Hertzler, G. (2000) ‘Depletion of Forest Resources in Sudan: Invention Option for Optima Control’ Presented to the Environment and Development Second International Conference, September 5-8, 2000, Stockholm.

 

Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (2002) Ethiopia: Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program, Addis Ababa

 

R.M. Hassen (2002) Accounting for Stock and Flow Values of Woody Land Resources: Methods and Results from South Africa, CEEPA, University of Pretoria

 

Sisay A., and Adugna L. (2001) ‘Eradicating Rural Poverty and Food Insecurity in Ethiopia: The Quest for Sustainable Institutions and Technological Transformation’, Paper for Ethio-Forum 2002 Conference, Ethiopian Social Rehabilitation Fund

 

United Nations Commission of the European Communities, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ands World Bank (1993), System of National Accounts

 

United Nations Development Programme (2003) Human Development Report 2003, and Millennium Development Goals: A compact among nations to end human poverty, New York, Oxford University Press

 

Van Ireland, E.C (1999) ‘Environment in Macroeconomic Modeling’ Chapter 41 in Jereon, C.J.M. and van den Berg (1999) Handbook of Environmental and Resource Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited

 

Vincent, J. (2000) “ Green Accounting Issues: from theory to practice, Introduction to the Special issues’’ Environment and Development Economics, Vol 5, Part I,II.

 

World Bank (1999) World Development Indicators, World Bank